Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
